The rapid growth of urbanization and the physical expansion of cities in recent decades have led to extensive changes in land-use patterns and increased pressure on natural resources and the environment. Basra City, as the most important economic hub in southern Iraq, has experienced significant spatial changes over the past three decades due to population growth, the expansion of oil and gas industries, the expansion of port activities, and the development of transportation infrastructure. The present study was conducted to analyze the trend of urban expansion in Basra and predict its future development pattern using Landsat satellite imagery, Geographic Information System, the Maximum Likelihood algorithm, and the integrated CA–Markov model. Land-use maps were prepared for 1990, 2000, 2013, and 2024, and classification accuracy was assessed using the Kappa coefficient and overall accuracy. Subsequently, the trend of land-use changes and the spatial development pattern of the city were simulated using the Markov transition matrix and neighborhood rules of cellular automata. The results showed that built-up areas continuously increased during the study period, and this expansion mainly occurred through the conversion of agricultural and barren lands and parts of the natural vegetation surrounding the city. Furthermore, the spatial expansion of the city was mainly concentrated along major transportation axes and peripheral areas, with horizontal expansion dominating over internal development. The results of the CA–Markov model also indicated the continued expansion of urban areas, the gradual reduction of agricultural and barren lands, and increasing pressure on natural resources and urban infrastructure. The findings confirm the effectiveness of this model in predicting land-use changes and can provide a basis for land-use management and sustainable development planning in Basra City.