نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This study aims to explain alternative futures of spatial development in multifunctional economic regions, with a case study of the Khodabandeh–Ijrood region in Zanjan Province, Iran. Despite its considerable agricultural potential, this region faces several challenges, including a heavy dependence on traditional agriculture, a weak value chain, limited water resources, and the outmigration of the rural population. Accordingly, adopting a futures studies approach, this research seeks to identify the key drivers affecting the region’s spatial development and to analyze plausible future scenarios. The research follows a descriptive-analytical method within the framework of regional futures studies. First, the main drivers in the economic, social, environmental, and institutional dimensions were identified through documentary studies and expert opinions. In the second stage, critical uncertainties were determined based on two criteria, importance and level of uncertainty, using expert judgments and the TOPSIS method. Subsequently, by applying cross-impact analysis, the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) method, and ScenarioWizard software, the mutual consistency of the drivers was examined and plausible future scenarios were generated. The findings indicate that the future of spatial development in the region is strongly influenced by the quality of local governance, the completion of the agricultural value chain, water resource management, and the level of social participation. Among the extracted scenarios, the “Synergistic Sustainability” scenario emerged as the most desirable condition. In this scenario, strengthening regional governance, developing agriculture-supporting industries, and utilizing tourism capacities create the conditions for a transition from a single-function agricultural pattern to a multifunctional economic region model. Finally, the study suggests that establishing functional linkages among agriculture, industry, and tourism, together with the implementation of coordinated spatial governance mechanisms, can provide the foundation for sustainable and balanced development in the Khodabandeh–Ijrood region.
کلیدواژهها English