This study aims to identify the geoeconomic drivers shaping the future of Hormozgan Province and to analyze plausible development scenarios within the strategic framework of Iran’s maritime economy. Hormozgan, located at the intersection of vital international waterways and bordering southern Persian Gulf nations, holds exceptional potential to emerge as a regional hub for trade, logistics, and economic cooperation. Its geostrategic position offers unique opportunities for integration into global transport networks and regional partnerships.

To explore these prospects, the research adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative techniques such as library research, document analysis, expert interviews, the Delphi method, and structural analysis. Data were processed using MICMAC and ScenarioWizard software, resulting in the identification of four key variables: proximity to Persian Gulf countries, the province’s role in international transport corridors, the quality of transportation infrastructure, and its capacity to attract domestic and foreign investment. Each variable was assessed across three potential states—favorable, static, and critical—and a cross-impact matrix was constructed based on expert evaluations to examine interdependencies.

Scenario analysis produced two internally consistent and plausible futures. The first scenario, Corridor of Peace and Prosperity, envisions Hormozgan as a dynamic center for regional economic, diplomatic, and scientific collaboration, actively engaged in sustainable development and global logistics. The second scenario, Inertia in the Waterway of Wealth, portrays a deteriorating trajectory marked by mismanagement, infrastructural decline, political isolation, and social unrest—leading to the erosion of strategic opportunities and increased vulnerability in national security.

Ultimately, the study underscores that Hormozgan’s future is not predetermined but hinges on the quality of governance, strategic foresight, and national commitment to unlocking its geoeconomic potential. The findings advocate for six strategic pillars—developmental, diplomatic, infrastructural, economic, socio-environmental, and security—to guide the province toward a resilient and prosperous maritime future.