Economic Geography Research

Economic Geography Research

Futures Studies of Traffic Volume Developments in Tabriz Metropolis: Scenario Building Based on Macro Trends and Driving Shocks

Document Type : Articles extracted from Thesis

Authors
Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Ta.C., Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
10.30470/jegr.2026.2077727.1347
Abstract
This study was conducted with the aim of futures studies concerning the traffic volume of Tabriz metropolis and an examination of its plausible future scenarios. From a theoretical perspective, this research is classified as applied and employs a hybrid methodology, integrating both qualitative and quantitative approaches. For the purpose of data collection and analysis, the Delphi technique was utilized, supplemented by the application of Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. The statistical population for this research comprised experts, specialists, and managers in the fields of transportation, safety, and information technology from the Transportation and Traffic Organization of Tabriz Metropolis, along with a number of relevant graduates. A purposive sampling method was adopted, leading to the final selection of 30 individuals as the study's sample.The findings derived from the data analysis using Micmac software revealed that the most significant challenges confronting the organization of traffic in Tabriz, in order of priority, are as follows: parallel efforts and a lack of effective coordination among responsible agencies, a heavy reliance on the municipality's traditional financial resources, weaknesses in the mechanisms for monitoring and evaluating traffic projects, the absence of an integrated traffic database, and the incomplete implementation of an Integrated Intelligent Traffic Management System (ITMS). Subsequently, the outputs generated by the Scenario Wizard software indicated that the most favorable and optimal scenario is the implementation of a comprehensive Integrated Intelligent Traffic Management System (ITMS). This system is capable of significantly enhancing inter-organizational coordination through the establishment of a centralized and integrated platform. Consequently, it is proposed as a pivotal and forward-looking strategy for addressing the future traffic challenges of Tabriz metropolis. This solution can take a fundamental step towards sustainable urban development by improving traffic flow management, reducing travel time, increasing safety, and enhancing the efficiency of existing infrastructure.
Keywords


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 18 August 2026

  • Receive Date 19 November 2025
  • Revise Date 30 April 2026
  • Accept Date 18 August 2026