Economic Geography Research

Economic Geography Research

Scenario writing of housing supply and demand in problematic areas of Zanjan city with a future research approach

Document Type : Articles extracted from Thesis

Authors
1 M.Sc. Student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan, Iran.
3 un
Abstract
This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. Data collection was conducted using both library and field methods (semi-structured questionnaires), and MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software were employed for data analysis. The statistical population consists of 32 experts and specialists from three sectors—industry, academia, and government—who were selected through purposive sampling. The findings from the structural analysis indicate that the housing supply and demand system in the problematic fabrics of Zanjan is unstable, with variables such as neglect of affordable housing policies, urban development regulations and standards, lack of good urban governance, housing quality, tenure security, household income and purchasing power, and population growth rate identified as the most influential factors affecting this system. Subsequently, among the 23 plausible scenarios identified, three main scenarios—namely, "Sustainable Housing Excellence Model" (the desirable scenario), "Low-Mobility Equilibrium; Continuation of Inefficient Trends" (the static scenario), and "Integrated Collapse; Deep Disruption in the Housing Market and Social Disorder" (the catastrophic scenario)—were introduced as the most probable futures ahead. The results show that achieving a stable equilibrium in the housing market of problematic urban fabrics requires institutional reforms, economic stability, social empowerment, transparency in the administrative system, and the establishment of good urban governance. Conversely, the continuation of the status quo and the lack of effective intervention will lead to the deepening of class divisions, reduced purchasing power, and increased spatial inequality. By providing a clear picture of probable futures, this research offers a framework for policy-making and strategic planning in the housing sector of Zanjan's problematic urban fabrics.
Keywords


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 10 July 2026

  • Receive Date 05 May 2026
  • Revise Date 07 June 2026
  • Accept Date 09 July 2026