Economic Geography Research

Economic Geography Research

Futures Studies of Spatial Development in Multifunctional Economic Regions A Case Study of the Khodabandeh–Ijrood Region

Document Type : Research Article

Authors
1 Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
3 PhD Candidate in Urban and Regional Economics, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
4 PhD Graduate in Religions and Mysticism, Department of Education, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan, Iran
Abstract
This study aims to explain alternative futures of spatial development in multifunctional economic regions, with a case study of the Khodabandeh–Ijrood region in Zanjan Province, Iran. Despite its considerable agricultural potential, this region faces several challenges, including a heavy dependence on traditional agriculture, a weak value chain, limited water resources, and the outmigration of the rural population. Accordingly, adopting a futures studies approach, this research seeks to identify the key drivers affecting the region’s spatial development and to analyze plausible future scenarios. The research follows a descriptive-analytical method within the framework of regional futures studies. First, the main drivers in the economic, social, environmental, and institutional dimensions were identified through documentary studies and expert opinions. In the second stage, critical uncertainties were determined based on two criteria, importance and level of uncertainty, using expert judgments and the TOPSIS method. Subsequently, by applying cross-impact analysis, the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) method, and ScenarioWizard software, the mutual consistency of the drivers was examined and plausible future scenarios were generated. The findings indicate that the future of spatial development in the region is strongly influenced by the quality of local governance, the completion of the agricultural value chain, water resource management, and the level of social participation. Among the extracted scenarios, the “Synergistic Sustainability” scenario emerged as the most desirable condition. In this scenario, strengthening regional governance, developing agriculture-supporting industries, and utilizing tourism capacities create the conditions for a transition from a single-function agricultural pattern to a multifunctional economic region model. Finally, the study suggests that establishing functional linkages among agriculture, industry, and tourism, together with the implementation of coordinated spatial governance mechanisms, can provide the foundation for sustainable and balanced development in the Khodabandeh–Ijrood region.
Keywords


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 29 July 2026

  • Receive Date 12 June 2026
  • Revise Date 24 June 2026
  • Accept Date 29 July 2026